This browser-based tool models traffic, conversions, and revenue using manual inputs or keyword exports. It provides realistic best, expected, and worst ranges by incorporating AI Overview and SERP adjusted CTRs, delivering all the modeling a paid suite charges for, free and in your browser.
Two ways in. Upload an Ahrefs or Semrush export for a keyword-level forecast, or enter a combined volume and rank by hand for a quick estimate. It all runs in your browser, and nothing's uploaded.
Export your keyword list from Ahrefs (Site Explorer / Keyword Explorer) or Semrush (Organic Research / Keyword Magic) and drop the CSV in. We auto-detect the columns.
These drive the forecast. Sensible 2026 defaults are filled in, so adjust any to match your situation before you run the numbers.
A free headline estimate first, then the full report below: revenue, conversions, the Google Ads-equivalent value, best/expected/worst ranges, and the keyword-level breakdown.
A Monte Carlo simulation over your CTR, achieved position, and volume assumptions. We report the P10, P50, and P90 outcomes, never a single false-precision number.
The same simulation carried through conversion rate and value per conversion. Adjust any assumption in Modeling Assumptions and these ranges move with it.
| Keyword | Clicks now | At target | Added | CTR | Volume | KD | Current | Target | Est. rank | SERP |
|---|
Click a column to sort. Edit any Target position to re-forecast that keyword live. Est. rank is where the model expects you to actually land given that keyword's KD versus your Domain Rating, with a reachability read of Likely / Stretch / Hard. Keywords already ranking at or above their target read Holding, since there's no climb to forecast. CTR is read from your curve at the est. rank, then adjusted for SERP features. Keywords with no current position are treated as ones you don't yet rank for (baseline near zero).
This is a model built on industry CTR curves and your assumptions, not a guarantee. The next step is a forecast built from your real keyword universe, competitive difficulty, and the roadmap to capture it.
Forecasts are estimates, not guarantees. CTR by position is a moving target, especially as AI Overviews reshape click behaviour month to month, so we present ranges, show the do-nothing baseline, and keep every assumption visible and editable. Curves are date-stamped to early 2026 and compiled from Backlinko, SISTRIX, First Page Sage, Advanced Web Ranking, Ahrefs, and Seer Interactive research.
At enterprise scale, "trust me, the rankings will come" doesn't get funded. A six-figure SEO program competes with paid media, sales headcount, and product for budget, and the only language the C-suite signs off on is revenue. A forecast turns a ranking ambition into a defensible business case: projected organic traffic, conversions, and revenue, with the do-nothing baseline shown right beside it so the incremental gain is obvious. Done honestly, it's the difference between asking for budget and earning it.
Tie a ranking target to clicks, conversions, and revenue, and SEO stops being a faith-based line item. A number with its assumptions on the table is what survives a finance review.
Forecasting front-loads the honest conversation about timeline and ceiling. Cracking page 2 is fast; the top 10 is the hard, link-earned part, and a model makes that trade-off visible before the contract is signed.
Not every ranking is worth chasing. Ranking probability against keyword difficulty, multiplied by search volume and intent, surfaces the terms where the effort actually pays back.
Scenario modeling shows what an extra increment of content or link building buys you. That's how you right-size a budget to the real opportunity instead of guessing.
A credible forecast needs three things: how much demand exists, how realistically you can capture it, and what that traffic is worth. Here's every metric the model uses, and where it comes from.
In the tool, only a keyword and its search volume are required to run a forecast. Current position, difficulty, SERP features, and CPC are optional: add them for a sharper keyword-level estimate, or let the model fall back to sensible 2026 defaults. Everything runs in your browser, and nothing is uploaded.
The core math is simple. The discipline is refusing to promise a rank you can't reach and a CTR that AI Overviews have already eaten. That's what separates a credible forecast from a sales pitch.
Six levers turn a keyword list into a forecast. Every one is visible and editable in the tool above, because a black box is exactly what a CFO won't fund.
A conservative, blended non-branded CTR curve reads the click-through rate at each rank. Position-1 CTR runs ~19% to ~40% across studies, so we default low to avoid over-promising, and you can paste your own GSC curve.
AI Overviews, snippets, shopping and local packs, and ads each remove a slice of organic CTR. The AI Overview hit alone reaches −58% on the top result (per Ahrefs, 2026), applied position by position.
There's no validated difficulty-to-rank formula, so the model maps your authority advantage (DR vs. KD and competitor DR) to a ranking probability, then credits the rank you'll realistically hold, not the one you typed in.
Content depth, technical health, on-page, topical authority, internal links, and dedicated link building each move reachability by their real share of ranking impact. Links earn authority; content earns the rank.
Traffic rises month over month, not in a step. A push-rate preset (conservative, moderate, optimistic) sets the time to target, stretched per keyword by difficulty, so the curve looks like real SEO.
A Monte Carlo simulation varies CTR, achieved rank, and demand across thousands of trials to report P10 / P50 / P90 outcomes. Honest ranges beat one confident, wrong number.
Get the ranking right and the wrong CTR curve, and your forecast is still fiction. These are the numbers that move it most, all date-stamped to early 2026.
CTR by position is a moving target, especially as AI Overviews reshape click behavior month to month. That's why the tool ships multiple study curves, lets you override with your own Search Console data, and reports a range rather than false precision. Treat every curve as an estimate, not gospel.
Forecasting tools range from a back-of-napkin spreadsheet to enterprise platforms with live SERP data. Knowing the trade-offs tells you which to trust for a board-level number.
A volume × CTR × conversion model in Sheets or Excel. Free and transparent, but the CTR curves go stale fast and they ignore SERP features, seasonality, and reachability entirely.
Lightweight, single-purpose web tools for quick keyword what-ifs. Fast for a gut check, but most lean on a static average CTR that no longer reflects an AI-Overview SERP.
Platforms like Advanced Web Ranking and SEOmonitor build SERP-feature-adjusted, per-keyword forecasts with progression-speed modeling. The most sophisticated option, and a paid subscription.
Ahrefs Traffic Potential and Semrush's traffic predictions estimate traffic from ranked keywords and SERP metrics. Useful directional signals, framed as estimations by their own makers.
Forecasts built directly from your Search Console and Analytics history. The most grounded approach, since they start from your real data instead of third-party volume estimates.
A SERP- and AI-Overview-adjusted, reachability-gated model with best/expected/worst ranges, that runs entirely in your browser. Upload an Ahrefs or Semrush CSV, or enter numbers by hand. Nothing is uploaded.
The features that separate a credible tool from a toy: SERP-feature-adjusted CTR, scenario modeling, competitive analysis (your authority versus the difficulty), customizable CTR curves, exportable reporting (PDF and CSV), and honest uncertainty ranges. This one is built around all of them, with no account required and your numbers staying in your browser.
Five steps from a keyword list to a revenue forecast you can take to a planning meeting.
Upload an Ahrefs or Semrush export, or enter a combined volume and rank by hand.
Choose a target rank for the set or per keyword, and your domain rating versus the competition.
Commit the SEO work, pick a CTR curve, toggle SERP features, and set seasonality and push rate.
Conversion rate, value per conversion, and CPC turn traffic into revenue and ads-equivalent value.
Traffic, conversions, revenue, and a best / expected / worst range, with a keyword-level breakdown.
A forecast is only as good as its assumptions. These are the habits that keep one honest and close to what actually happens.
Paste your real CTR-by-position from Search Console into the custom curve, and enter your own conversion rate, rather than leaning on published averages. Nobody's curve fits your SERPs like your own.
Never forecast a single number. Run conservative, expected, and optimistic cases so the range, not a point estimate, frames the decision and absorbs the inherent uncertainty.
Apply AI Overview and SERP-feature suppression per keyword. A position-3 ranking under an AI Overview can lose nearly half its expected clicks, and ignoring that inflates everything downstream.
Brand searches convert with or without SEO, and their sky-high CTR distorts the math. Filter them out and forecast only the non-branded clicks SEO actually earns.
Spread demand across the year using 12-month volume history, and apply any year-over-year trend. A flat-line forecast misses the peaks and troughs that decide a quarter.
Optimistic conversion assumptions are the easiest way to lie to yourself. A common discipline: estimate the lift, then halve it. Surpassing a conservative goal builds far more trust than missing a rosy one.
Every assumption is on the table, and every default is anchored to a named, public source. Override any of them with your own data.
For each keyword, monthly clicks = search volume × CTR at the rank × SERP-feature suppression. The forecast computes that twice: once at your current rank (clicks now) and once at the rank the model credits you (clicks at target). The difference, summed across the set, is your added traffic. We show the do-nothing baseline (inertial traffic if rankings never change) right beside the forecast, so the incremental gain is transparent rather than assumed.
Added clicks then flow to revenue: clicks × conversion rate × value per conversion, plus a Google Ads-equivalent value (clicks × CPC) as the cost-avoided anchor. Branded queries, when included, are discounted because they'd convert with or without SEO.
The default is a conservative blended non-branded curve (position 1 ≈ 25%, falling to ~1.8% by position 10) so the tool never over-promises. You can switch to the Backlinko 2024, SISTRIX, or First Page Sage curves, or paste your own from your GSC CTR-by-position report. Positions between listed points are linearly interpolated, and a smooth decay handles page 2 and beyond.
We deliberately exclude branded CTR, which runs 35-60% at position 1 and reflects existing demand, not SEO work. Both Advanced Web Ranking and SEOmonitor exclude it for the same reason.
Each feature on a query removes a fraction of organic CTR, combined multiplicatively with a floor so clicks never collapse to zero. AI Overviews are position-aware on an Ahrefs basis: −58% for the top result, easing to about −19% at position 10. Other features decay down the page, for example a featured snippet at −35% at the top, a shopping pack at −45%, top ads at −22%.
If your upload includes a SERP-features column, each keyword carries its own features automatically. Otherwise the global toggles apply across the set. This single AI Overview toggle is often the most consequential input in the entire forecast.
No published tool has a validated keyword-difficulty-to-rank formula, so we don't pretend to. Instead, the model scores reachability from your effective authority (Domain Rating plus committed link work) against the SERP's required authority (KD, blended with competitor DR when you supply it), weighted so content counts for more on low-competition terms where links dominate less. That reachability score credits the rank you'll realistically hold and tempers how fast you get there.
The ramp raises traffic month over month on an ease-out curve, fast early then settling toward target. Each keyword gets its own ramp stretched by difficulty, and the chart horizon covers the full climb plus a plateau. Technical health is treated as a pass/fail gate: leave it unaddressed and reachability is capped.
The deterministic result is the median. Around it, a Monte Carlo simulation runs 2,000 trials, each multiplying the headline by independent factors for search-demand variance, CTR-curve uncertainty (the largest unknown), and how fully the modeled rank is achieved. The sorted trials yield the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles, reported as Worst (P10) / Expected (P50) / Best (P90).
Because every factor is centered on 1.0, the expected case tracks the deterministic headline. The spread is honest uncertainty, not a second layer of pessimism stacked on a model that already discounts for reachability.
This tool runs entirely in your browser, no account required and your numbers stay on your machine. Here's how to feed it your own numbers, how it scales, and where SEO forecasting is heading.
Export current positions and search volume from Ahrefs or Semrush, or pull your real CTR-by-position from Search Console and paste it as a custom curve. The forecast bends to your data, not generic averages.
Add your conversion rate, value per conversion, and CPC, and the forecast becomes a revenue and Google Ads-equivalent number, the figures finance and the sales team actually recognize.
Upload a keyword set and the model runs per keyword and sums the set, so the same logic scales from a single page to an enterprise content roadmap.
As AI Overviews and answer engines absorb clicks, forecasting is shifting from rankings alone to AI search visibility and citation. GEO forecasting is the frontier, and the SERP-feature suppression here is a first step toward it.
Across the industry, live SERP data and machine-learning models are pushing forecasts from static snapshots toward dynamic estimates that update as positions, features, and demand shift.
New search behaviors, voice, visual, and chat-style answers, change which queries convert and how clicks distribute. The next generation of forecasting has to model them, not just ten blue links.
A forecast gives you a defensible estimate, not a guarantee. Keep these limits in mind before you take a number to the board.
Search is shaped by algorithm updates, competitors, and external factors no model controls. Treat the output as a confident band to plan against, not a contract.
AI Overviews are reshaping click behavior month to month, and published CTR curves disagree by wide margins. A forecast inherits that uncertainty, which is exactly why it reports ranges.
There's no proven formula from keyword difficulty to a ranking or a timeline. Reachability and the ramp are honest, adjustable assumptions, not black-box predictions.
Thin or messy keyword, volume, and analytics data simply widen the error bars. Unrealistic inputs, like assuming every keyword hits #1, produce unrealistic forecasts.
A forecast is a promise. Here's what delivering on one looks like, across two very different business models.
A cross-team SEO, CRO, and content program that grew non-branded organic across the consumer site and turned the highest-intent tool pages into a compounding growth engine.
Enhanced category pages and crawlable, indexable product variations that expanded non-branded visibility across a large fine-jewelry catalog, including a national #1 ranking.
Quick answers to the questions that come up most when you forecast organic growth.
A forecast is a confident range, not a precise prediction. Accuracy depends on data quality and how volatile your SERPs are. The honest move is to forecast a best / expected / worst band and aim to surpass the conservative case, rather than chase a single number that algorithm updates and AI Overviews can break.
At minimum, just a keyword and its search volume. That's it. Everything else is optional and refines the estimate: current position, keyword difficulty, SERP features, and CPC. So a raw Ahrefs Keyword Explorer or Semrush Keyword Magic export, which has no current rankings because you don't rank yet, works fine: those keywords are simply modeled as ones you're not yet ranking for. You can also skip the upload entirely and enter a combined volume and rank by hand.
Most credible SEO forecasts run 6 to 24 months. Shorter than that and the ramp hasn't matured; much longer and the SERP will have changed enough to outpace the assumptions. This tool sizes its horizon to your push rate, covering the full climb plus a plateau.
Significantly. When an AI Overview is present, the top organic result can lose around 58% of its clicks (per Ahrefs, 2026). The tool applies a position-aware AI Overview suppression so your forecast reflects an AI-shaped SERP, not the ten-blue-links world that no longer exists.
No. Branded searches would convert with or without SEO, and their high CTR inflates the result. Forecast only non-branded demand, the traffic SEO actually earns. The tool is non-branded by default and discounts branded clicks if you include them.
Reaching page 2 or 3 is often quick and mostly on-page. Cracking the top 10 is the hard part and depends on authority versus difficulty, typically over several months to a year. Traffic rises gradually as rankings climb, which is why the forecast models a ramp, not an overnight jump.
Yes, manually. The CSV upload is built for Ahrefs and Semrush exports, which carry the search-volume column the model needs (a raw GSC export doesn't). But GSC is still your best source for two inputs: enter your average position from it, and paste your real CTR-by-position into the Custom curve option. Nobody's curve fits your SERPs like your own. There's no live Search Console connection; the tool stays entirely in your browser.
For a quick gut check a spreadsheet is fine. This tool adds what most templates miss: SERP-feature and AI-Overview-adjusted CTR, reachability gating against keyword difficulty, seasonality, a month-by-month ramp, and Monte Carlo ranges, all without exposing your data, since it runs entirely in your browser.
Book a free analysis and I'll build a real forecast from your actual keyword universe, competitive difficulty, and SERP reality, then map the roadmap to capture it.